Microsoft seemingly just revealed that OpenAI lost $11.5B last quarter

72 pointsposted 9 hours ago
by stefano

22 Comments

arcticbull

6 hours ago

Their revenue in the entire first half per the article was $4.3B, even if we assume it was backloaded in Q2 that’s a -500% profit margin. I’m very excited to review their S-1.

Like, for every dollar you give them they spend $5 to deliver the product. They’re selling $10 bills for $2. They seem to have taken the joke about making up losses with scale pretty seriously.

rpdillon

6 hours ago

> Like, for every dollar you give them they spend $5 to deliver the product.

Well, it would be useful before concluding this to see a breakdown between OpEx, CapEx, and R&D.

conartist6

6 hours ago

What Theo claims on YouTube is that each model they make is profitable over its lifetime and the weird numbers for the company are because they keep training more models, having to pay up front to buy a bunch of future profit each time basically

ndiddy

6 hours ago

The problem is that OpenAI will have to keep doing this basically indefinitely, as otherwise open-source commodity models will catch up with them and offer an equivalent product at a much lower cost. If the company is reliant on having to keep paying more than it's making on its current model to train new models, I don't see how it can ever become a sustainable business.

patapong

5 hours ago

Not even just open source models - other commercial LLM models as well. All of the big LLM companies (Google, Anthropic, OpenAI) are basically ocked in a cold war of having to continuously outspend the other providers or risk becoming irrelevant.

The big question for me is if people will ever be happy with a model that is "good enough", and can thus be optimized and run profitably over time without faling behind. Time will tell!

TSiege

6 hours ago

This claim that if they stopped training new models wouldn’t the old ones become stale as things are updated? Not sure how quickly that would occur but it does seem likely as the world moves fast

jsiepkes

6 hours ago

I would think that logic only works if opensource models like llama don't catch up? In other words the models don't become a commodity.

Yeul

2 hours ago

Future profit? Isn't that what every company in the red claims?

Ofcourse in the 21st century none of this actually matters people just want to buy low sell high.

louiereederson

2 hours ago

this is bad reporting. microsoft's share of openai's cumulative loss over the lifetime of their investment is 11.5b. the microsoft share of openai's loss in the quarter was 4.1b, implying an 8b loss for openai itself assuming microsoft recognized 49% of openai losses per their ownership stake exiting the quarter. there may be some one time items that skew this, if not this is ain't good

GiorgioG

7 hours ago

How long can this go on for?

buyucu

7 hours ago

As long as investors are willing to pay for it.

arcticbull

6 hours ago

I can’t help but feel their push to go public is driven by their having milked the private markets dry.

rhetocj23

2 hours ago

Yes if their existing investors were seeing stuff that indicated they would create escape velocity, they would queue up to purchase more stock.

Ianjit

7 hours ago

Forever, tech has become a never ending sequence of bubbles and hype cycles.

GiorgioG

3 hours ago

The duration of this hype-cycle/bubble has exceeded my expectations.

rhetocj23

2 hours ago

Personally Im not surprised. Im bearish on the capabilities of LLMs given the amount invested, but, I also believe theres about 2 years left (of minimal progress relative to money invested) to go before things finally start to crater.

ml-anon

7 hours ago

Contrast this with Google who made $100Bn profit last quarter and on the side has Gemini with 650MAU and does 7B tokens/minute. It makes it clear that neither MS nor OAI know what they are doing.

JimDugan

6 hours ago

Alphabet (Google) made $102.35 billion in revenue last quarter, not $100bn in profit.

throw101010

6 hours ago

Also most of it is from ads, not from their AI or cloud products. I wonder when OpenAI will start to serve ads as much as Google does, they certainly have people's attention a lot of times throughout the day looking at how people around me use their services.

rhetocj23

2 hours ago

I find it funny that people think OAI can enter the ad business and just compete easily with Google, given the years Google has had investing in research etc to build the behemoth it is today in the market for online advertising.

By the time OAI even figures it out, they will have run out of funding. All they can do now is prop up usage numbers to signal to investors that their market position is durable.

crowbahr

5 hours ago

Not a single AI company is cash flow positive, not even Google's AI part of the business.

It's unclear if they even can be, since commodity models you can use for free catch up to them pretty close to yearly.