3eb7988a1663
11 hours ago
Before anyone jumps the gun and says this is a political move, this is quite likely just economics.
Peak coal was in 2007, and has been falling rapidly since. We are currently generating about 1/3 the electricity from coal in 2023 vs 2007[0].
[0] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/electricity-...
fsckboy
10 hours ago
>Before anyone jumps the gun and says this is a political move, this is quite likely just economics.
Before anyone jumps the gun and says this is likely economics, RTFA at least a few paragraphs:
Granite Shore Power, the company that owns the coal plant in Bow, New Hampshire, said they ceased commercial operations September 12th, about a year and a half since they announced they would retire their facility by 2028 as part of a settlement agreement with environmental groups.
kstenerud
10 hours ago
It's going to be a mix of both. If it were massively profitable, they'd just pay up whatever they need to, get whatever influential politicians on their side, do a bunch of marketing, and then continue operations.
nielsbot
8 hours ago
Is a settlement agreement w/ environmental groups considered political?
user
10 hours ago
not2b
11 hours ago
Yes, natural gas is now cheaper than coal for power generation, and solar has become much cheaper. Even disregarding environmental concerns, it's just not a good choice any more.
indymike
an hour ago
Including regulatory and litigation expenses, this is simply not true. That said, coal is very dirty and is not the best choice for power generation because of pollution. Coal is pretty cheap, and it's take most of my lifetime to change the cost through regulation, litigation and lawmaking.
ericd
11 hours ago
I'm curious, in case anyone knows, how much of the economic disadvantage of coal is because of environmental reg compliance versus other, more fundamental costs?
pragmatic
10 hours ago
You can't put coal in a pipeline.
You have to physically handle every piece of coal. Extract, load ship, unload.
Natural gas is shooting out of the ground in North Dakota.
You can compare to wind and solar also.
The economics aren't favorable.
thelastgallon
9 hours ago
Thats the wrong question. The question to ask is what is the death rates per unit of electricity production: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/death-rates-from-energy-p...
Coal beats everything else by a mile. We also get mercury pollution for free, so no more eating fish.
xbmcuser
10 hours ago
Coal requires manual labour and mining so even without environmental regulations it's expensive. In the US coal use decrease had very little to do with environmental factors most of it was because fracking brought in cheap natural gas and pushed coal out.
jhallenworld
9 hours ago
Its does, but you should see the machines they use for coal mining these days, particularly in Wyoming. A giant strip mine seems to require like 20 workers, but with giant trucks and excavators.
Even for underground mines, check out the massive longwall mining machines they use- it's kind of astonishing. They pretty much take all the coal.
I think this is lost in the political talk about protecting mining jobs- the main original competition is more efficient mining operations.
Anyway, it really says something that natural gas and solar are cheaper than coal given this context.
fragmede
8 hours ago
You should see this one! https://youtu.be/azEvfD4C6ow
It's a bit dated (completed in 1978) and cost approximately $100 million. At one point it was the heaviest land vehicle, clocking in at 13,500 tons. It's since been succeded, but this bucket-wheel excavator needed only five people to operate. Those five people could mine 240,000 tons of coal[8] or 240,000 cubic metres of overburden (rock/soil on top of the coal) per day. That's 2400 coal wagons!
After totally tapping out all of the coal at the Tagebau Hambach mine, in 2001, it took a crew of 70 together to move it 14 miles to the next mine. This move cost 15 million German Marks.
(Just watch the linked documentary.)
LarsAlereon
11 hours ago
I think it's primarily a fundamental cost issue. It's simply far cheaper to get an equivalent amount of energy from fracking a natural gas formation than having to literally dig coal out of the ground.
chris_va
9 hours ago
(disclaimer that I manage a climate&energy research group)
Most of the comments here are speculative.
The TLDR is that coal plants have trouble ramping their production up/down quickly, unlike natural gas which can do so in minutes. So, if you have a grid that is being thrashed by variable production (renewables), this results in variable pricing and demand for baseload. Coal cannot economically compete in that market (and neither can nuclear, which has the same problem).
mrDmrTmrJ
9 hours ago
Given that renewable power power is self correlated (all the solar panels are producing at once - or they’re not, all the wind turbines are turning at once - or they’re not) - renewable energy leads to low prices when it’s produced and high prices when it’s not.
Why not put massive, grid scale batteries “behind the meter” at a nuclear or coal plant to enable continual production but only sell power when prices are high and store power when prices are low?
jabl
8 hours ago
> Why not put massive, grid scale batteries “behind the meter” at a nuclear or coal plant to enable continual production but only sell power when prices are high and store power when prices are low?
Even better, if you have a functioning wholesale electricity market, you can put those batteries on the grid and benefit everybody.
soni96pl
8 hours ago
Once you have batteries you may do so with solar or wind
pfdietz
3 hours ago
Batteries are also highly useful for relaxing transmission constraints. I've seen a claim that sufficient storage (at various places in the network) could increase the energy transmittable over the existing grid by a factor of 3.
An analogy here is natural gas pipelines with intermediate storage caverns, which allow the pipelines to operate more steadily even if demand various greatly over the year.
eru
11 hours ago
Well, if you want to answer that question, you probably also need to figure out the hypothetical cost of the other power sources minus environmental regulations.
Nuclear would be (and used to be) massively cheaper, before regulations went wild against it.
I'm deliberately saying 'went wild', because the earlier nuclear power generation that was built to saner standards also has turned out to be incredibly safe already.
(Basically, anyone who avoided insane Soviet bullshit had safe nuclear power, as measured in eg fatalities per Joule of electricity generated.)
bryanlarsen
10 hours ago
The regulatory costs of nuclear are mostly occurred in the design phase. Those costs are sunk and mostly irrelevant for new builds of old designs.
The fact that old designs like the AP1000 are crazy expensive to build has a lot more to do with the fact that the US sucks at building mega projects than anything else.
dalyons
9 hours ago
It’s not just the US that sucks at mega projects. It’s everywhere that’s not china.
fragmede
8 hours ago
Interestingly, one of the reasons the design phase for nuclear is so onerous is the sheer amount of red tape involved due to compliance and other regulatory reasons. You wanna know something funny? You know what's really good at generating piles of convincing sounding bullshit that it's possible no one even actually reads, and looks like it's totally going to insert fuel rods into the nuclear power industry?
LLMs!
pfdietz
3 hours ago
I'm getting the impression the problem isn't any particular regulation, but rather than because regulations exist, the design is fixed.
Getting a design approved means a specific design is approved. So, the power plant must be built as designed, no changes. And apparently ensuring you built exactly what the design specifies is really expensive.
What's needed to reduce this cost is having some way to get a whole cloud of closely related designs approved, so that reasonable deviations from the design are also approved. This is equivalent to saying only the most critical part of the design would need to be built as designed, everything else would be allowed some slop. With something like this, one might (for example) be able to build the confinement building with less tight control on the configuration of the reinforcing steel.
I'm don't know how one would get such a cloud of designs approved. Maybe this is a problem that could be solved by massive computation? Run billions of mutant designs through a simulation gauntlet to see how sensitive it is to various perturbations? Or maybe add more defense in depth, like devices that scrub radioactive elements from steam (such things exist) so the tolerable chance of meltdown can be allowed to increase while keeping expected damage in check?
ViewTrick1002
6 hours ago
The American nuclear industry was collapsing due to spiraling costs before TMI happened.
This ”before regulations” time period seems to be made up on feelings about a rosy picture of the past rather than actual data.
pfdietz
3 hours ago
It wasn't just spiraling costs, but also the collapse in the steady 7%/year growth in electrical energy demand. Without transparency on demand growth, very long term investments become risky (a risk reflected in the bankruptcy of WPPSS). The passage of PURPA in 1978 also didn't help with this as it allowed a flood of non-utility generation onto the grid, helping soak up what demand growth there was.
juliankauai
10 hours ago
Except of course, Fukushima. Or any nuclear plant that gets hit by tsunami, earthquake, terrorism,or other natural disaster.
LarsAlereon
10 hours ago
It looks like the top-end estimate is that the Fukushima disaster may have caused up to 500 additional total lifetime deaths from cancer. Roughly 23,000 people per year died of diseases attributed to coal power plants in the United States alone from 1999-2020.
Edit: Changed "linked to" to "attributed to", because this is the estimated count of people who would not have died of disease if coal power plants were not running.
yobbo
10 hours ago
Were there any deaths from the Fukushima nuclear disaster?
A large area was evacuated and "human costs" were great. But as I recall, no deaths from radiation.
Gibbon1
10 hours ago
People whose metabolic reserve is low often die when you stress them.
I saw a study claiming 440 excess deaths from the Los Angeles fires. I'll make an assumption that permanently moving old and health impaired people from the Fukushima exclusion zone had a similar increase in mortality. And then a bit of looking leads me to this.
"The evacuation itself also was not without severe consequences. The accident was in the winter, and the evacuation of 840 patients or elderly people in nursing homes and health-care facilities apparently resulted in 60 immediate deaths due to hypothermia, dehydration, trauma and deterioration of serious medical conditions (Tanigawa et al 2012) and upwards of 100 deaths in subsequent month"
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0952-4746/33/3/49...
Like the Grapes of Wrath where the family starts out for California and the grandparents both die on the way.
chairmansteve
10 hours ago
Yes, If there were 20x nuclear power stations, there would probably have been 20x Fukushima scale incidents.
Murphy's law is real...
eru
8 hours ago
Fatalities per Joule of generated electricity is extremely low for nuclear power, even if you add not just Fukushima but also Chernobyl.
So if you'd scale up, and keep that level of safety, it would be fine. Even less safety would be fine. After all, we accept much less safety in eg natural gas or even solar power. (Solar power is extremely safe once running, but if you look at casualties over the lifecycle, you get a few people falling off roofs when installing residential solar power. It's a very small number, but nuclear is so safe, that the roof-fall incidents of solar are a big number by comparison.)
user
11 hours ago
monero-xmr
10 hours ago
https://www.eia.gov/dashboard/newengland/overview
Solar makes up 4% of New England electricity. Not much sun there. Needs nuclear to succeed
toomuchtodo
10 hours ago
Unlikely. The ISO has 3.5GW of solar and nuclear capacity equally (I’m aware of capacity factor of solar vs nuclear, but the ISO also reports ~6GW of behind the meter distributed solar which only manifests as reduced demand). The ISO needs more batteries, renewables, and transmission from hydro in Quebec, Canada (1.2GW), but nuclear is not needed to succeed long term and those two generators will eventually be decommissioned, as their license only extends their operating period to ~2050. Twenty five years is plenty of time to replace their 3.5GW of output; 18GW of battery storage, 17GW of wind, and 13.5GW of solar is in the ISO’s interconnect queue or has been proposed by developers.
https://www.mainepublic.org/climate/2025-01-03/central-maine... (“Central Maine Power aims to finish controversial western Maine power corridor in 2025”)
https://www.mainepublic.org/politics/2023-11-30/documents-re... (NextEra, which owns the Seabrook nuclear power plant in N.H., stands to lose tens of millions of dollars every year if the NECEC comes online and attempted to use political donations to scuttle the Quebec Hydro transmission line)
https://www.iberdrola.com/about-us/what-we-do/smart-grids/ne... (“The new transmission line between Quebec and Maine will provide 1,200 megawatts (MW) of renewable hydroelectric power to the New England power grid in Lewiston, Maine, sufficient to meet the demand of 1.2 million homes. Once built, NECEC will be New England's largest renewable energy source, saving customers $190 million per year.”)
https://www.iso-ne.com/about/government-industry-affairs/new...
https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/clean-energy/northeast-...
https://app.electricitymaps.com/map/zone/US-NE-ISNE/live/fif...
(Quebec, interestingly, has ~40GW of hydro generation capacity)
jhallenworld
9 hours ago
Yup, I've been watching the NECEC story unfold over the years. Boston's giant natural gas Mystic Generating Station was closed in anticipation of the power being replaced by NECEC.
There is an interesting podcast about Quebec hydropower, it's quite an accomplishment, not without controversy.
fragmede
8 hours ago
Apropos nothing, what would happen if that transmission line simply didn't get completed till, say 2028? Hydro power sounds like something woke people might like, and dear leader says we can't have that.
jhallenworld
8 hours ago
Or it gets built, but NextEra convinces the dear leader to tariff energy imports. Or Canada just cuts us off for being jerks.
juliankauai
11 hours ago
Trump just closed the already approved largest solar power project in the US. That’s political. I’m all for fusion but we need power now for the transition. Losing the solar project for 3 million people is a big loss. it takes a long time to get any type of big power up to speed.
recursive
10 hours ago
I understand the problem is transmission much more than generation. There's a backlog of power sources waiting to come online for infrastructure to catch up. Or so I heard.
rat87
10 hours ago
its an economic move but it would be good not bad if it were a political move coal is bad and we should be moving away from it faster