quacked
10 hours ago
I often think about how much human labor there is available at any given moment, and how in any minute some percentage of "available labor" is bound up doing something.
Back in the day, with billions fewer people, you could still bind up some percentage of available labor making beautiful gates for the coronation, or staging mock battles for the king as he passed. Today, I guess people make marketing copy for cat food and run professional sports. And yet a great many of us are still alive, having continued to survive despite our countrymen spending all their available labor on frivolity.
What percentage of that "available labor" is really truly usefully bound up in making sure we don't all starve to death, get violently invaded, or die of exposure?
I wish I could see what kind of society would appear if that pool of "available labor" was turned toward purposes I personally consider worthy--caring for the weak, erecting and protecting great monuments and cities and wild areas, etc. Obviously this has been attempted before in various different regimes--merely having full dominion over all "available labor" and turning it toward "worthy purposes" does not automatically create a great nation, as the USSR and China found out--but it doesn't stop me from wondering, if Man wasn't so busy making gates for the king or increasing user conversion from 17.805% to 17.873%, what would that society look like?
techdmn
9 hours ago
Speaking as a U.S. citizen, I think the problem should not be approached as "stop people from doing frivolous things", but rather "government should fund the commons". Of course this doesn't make government perfect, but generally it appears to be the most successful way to achieve things like caring for the elderly and disabled, building monuments, protecting wild areas, etc. Turns out we do all these things to some extent, just not as much as some (myself included) might like.
Which is to say, a well run society should have room for BOTH frivolity AND supporting the general welfare of its people. Perhaps our current troubles are the result of many people thinking that supporting the general welfare IS frivolous.
paddleon
7 hours ago
"We the People of the United States, in Order to
- form a more perfect Union,
- establish Justice,
- insure domestic Tranquility,
- provide for the common defence,
- promote the general Welfare, and
- secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity,
do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America."
Yeah, seems like a good idea to me
FabHK
9 hours ago
Somewhat related thought:
World power consumption is around 20 TW (of which around 3 TW electricity), that's very roughly 2 kW per person (obviously not equally distributed).
A human consumes around 8600 kJ of energy in their food per day, or roughly 100 W (search for "basal metabolic rate"). Most of that is needed just to keep the body running, but around a quarter or so can be converted to physical work: an average human can perform some 75 W of physical work over an 8h shift (75 W for 1/3 the time, so 25 W on average).
That means that everyone has (on average) around 80 "people" worth of energy working for them (2000 W of energy consumption per person / 25 W of average usable energy output per person).
IAmBroom
7 hours ago
It took me a reread to realize what you were saying.
If 745 is one horsepower, is 25 W one personpower?
Nifty3929
8 hours ago
Indeed - I often feel like the vast majority of the internet is effectively our pyramids.
How many very smart, motivated folks do we have working on essentially ads and related indirect monetization strategies for the very small amount of the internet is the "good stuff"
lo_zamoyski
7 hours ago
Don't insult the pyramids.
bluGill
8 hours ago
Why is useful important? Back in the day residents would sometimes get a western good and they would save the packaging (think plastic spray can lids) because it was color unlike the soviet versions. Both worked (well we will assume though cheating putting water in in a cleaning bottle was not unknown when quotas were not met), but consumers want that beauty.
which is to say a lot of needless things are still highly desired.
card_zero
8 hours ago
I don't know about useful, but right is important. You could imagine if everybody spontaneously started going around doing wrong. To some unclear extent this is what normally happens, and those people doing wrong should stop. It's not even entirely their own business, right and wrong: even when they have property rights on their side, it's still OK for other people to pass comment. And it could be that colored bottle caps are a waste of time and attention, and wrong, and that can be an opinion. But morality doesn't respond well to central management.
fragmede
8 hours ago
Religion may not be as important as it once was, but the history of Catholicism would seem to be at odds with that.
card_zero
8 hours ago
Now I'm unsure whether I'm supposed to consider it as a source of morality, or as another kind of colorful packaging. I guess you're going for the "central management of morality" angle. But it doesn't micromanage - much - and it isn't really enforced.
quacked
8 hours ago
There's a certain percentage of "available labor" spending that, if it goes away, causes death directly. Maintaining the power grid and the cold storage network comes to mind, although of course both of those resources are massively overpowered if you're thinking "survival only" and not "make sure gas stations have Klondike bars".
WalterBright
8 hours ago
The most productive societies are ones where the people are free to do what they want. The more people are regimented and taxed, the less productive they are.
quacked
8 hours ago
Undoubtedly, but productivity does not directly equate to beauty, health, happiness, satisfaction, morality, civic engagement, justice, etc.
WalterBright
8 hours ago
A life of indolence does not lead to any of those things. We simply are not built that way. We were built to struggle.
lo_zamoyski
7 hours ago
But for what end?
"Productivity" for the sake of what?
Work for the sake of work is worthless.
WalterBright
6 hours ago
For the sake of you living richer than medieval kings.
Peoples' wants are unbounded.
fragmede
8 hours ago
For once, I agree with you!
WalterBright
8 hours ago
Yay!
card_zero
9 hours ago
Nobody knows what percentage. Besides, people want more than to be fed, sheltered, and protected from violent attacks. Undoubtedly they are often wrong and want ridiculous pointless things, but nobody knows exactly which things are the wrong things. That's why we have a diverse society of idiots, all trying different things.
What intrigues me is that all of it is considered "economic activity", and counts toward GDP and is considered beneficial, even flower arranging and witchcraft accessories and cloud-connected sneakers. Somehow that assessment ends up being correct, because nobody knows for sure which parts are bullshit.
quacked
9 hours ago
I agree, but surely with some strict definitions, you could get within 5%.
I am intrigued by the same thing you are. How does it all count as economic activity? What percentage of the flower-arranging has to be done to ensure that the medicine-manufacturing can be done? It's such an endless chain--"I pay the credit card fee on my purchase of custom stationary to the credit card company and the credit card company rolls it up in its revenue projections and forecasts a more profitable Q3 so their stock price increases so the portfolio-holding lenders are more lenient with their loan terms so Pfizer takes out a larger loan to build a factory in Bangalore to run the manufacturing lines..."
If the custom-stationary buying stops, so does the factory-loan lending... and vice versa.
card_zero
9 hours ago
I'm trying to imagine the chain in reverse order, and without reference to money but just to things people want. So Pfizer has this idea to organize people to make more medicines. But this is slightly risky, because it's not a shoe-in that people want more medicines. So they need permission, and lenders can grant that, but only if the lenders' other, um, projects have been successful recently, which equates to "consumer confidence", and that is due to millions of flower arrangers (or equivalently frivolous businesses) successfully pleasing flower-likers. It seems to amount to: if people are generally making one another happy in small silly ways, they have the courage and imagination necessary to try doing bigger stuff. If not, they're all like "I didn't even get to see any pretty flowers this week, I'm in survival mode now", which means they aren't throwing much permission to do stuff (money) around, and consequently there's no will to try anything, and that's a depression.
I note that Pfizer's new factory is a venture, and although it's medical it's debatably not necessary for survival: it's not part of homeostasis.
fellowniusmonk
9 hours ago
We can't ex ante compute what humans activity is critical for the forward preservation and growth of humanity.
We can do targeted resource allocation for what we deem promising threads.
We can identify simple failure states to avoid for known recurring issues (plant food now or starve next year.)
But for the vast majority of areas a new venture is required by new people creating new things.
Humans don't simply find, but generate meaning (some that coheres only in imagination, some that coheres to facts in the larger world, some that do both over time.) human meaning generation is a kind of random walk where each human is the write head for a path, the causal chain is too complex for any given discovery or "economically" useful thing to be easily predicted.
Destroy art and maybe people will become too depressed to do anything, or will lack enough noise/inspiration in their thinking to have an insight.
Many of these things are impossible to unwind.
jerlam
8 hours ago
In a very broad sense, essentials like health care and transportation also dramatically increase GDP. In the US, going to the doctor costs a lot more money and dozens of people get paid for coding, insurance, billing, and payments which all do not directly improve the patient's health. People are required to buy cars, fill them with gas, pay for storage, pay tolls, and pay to fix them are also contributing to economic activity.
But these costs are basically taxes in a different form.
There is a slight truth to the conspiracy theory that "doctors keep people sick because it's good for business", in the same way that building appliances that last forever isn't a good business strategy.
WalterBright
8 hours ago
> in the same way that building appliances that last forever isn't a good business strategy.
I'd reframe that as people don't want to pay for an appliance that lasts forever.
There are exceptions. Things built for professional use are of a much higher quality. For example, restaurant grade kitchen equipment and appliances are far more durable than consumer ones. Of course, they cost quite a bit more, too.
WalterBright
8 hours ago
> people want more than to be fed, sheltered, and protected from violent attacks
People want to be free. Being infantilized by being fed, sheltered, and protected by others rots the soul.
One of the proudest days of my life was when I told my dad I no longer needed any support from him. Unexpectedly, my relationship with him suddenly changed. He started treating me like a man, rather than a child.
shigawire
8 hours ago
You seem to think your experience is universal.
WalterBright
7 hours ago
Scratch the surface, and people are the same.
There's a short story about a man who dies and goes to heaven. A person appears, and says the man can have whatever he wants. The man asks for this, and that, and voila! He gets it. Whatever he wants. His slightest wish gets fulfilled immediately.
But after a while, he gets bored. He asks the person, he didn't think heaven would be so boring. The person replies, you aren't in heaven, you're in hell.
Be careful what you wish for.
card_zero
7 hours ago
I wish at least to be protected by the army in some disastrous circumstances, I think. Pathetic or not.
WalterBright
6 hours ago
My dad told me that during WW2, if a young man was walking down the street in street clothes (rather than in uniform) he'd be spat on.
sunrunner
8 hours ago
> nobody knows for sure which parts are bullshit
I'm pretty sure it's all bullshit and the universe is just random chaos, unless you could convince everyone that there's some kind of objective higher purpose that they all should be striving towards. People just figure out which things they believe to be non-bullshit and go in that direction. Perhaps the only guaranteed purpose for life is to continue itself, which seems awkwardly recursive.
Or as Terry Pratchett put in Hogfather:
"Take the universe and grind it down to the finest powder and sieve it through the finest sieve and then show me one atom of justice, one molecule of mercy. And yet," Death waved a hand, "And yet you act as if there is some ideal order in the world, as if there is some... some rightness in the universe by which it may be judged."
card_zero
7 hours ago
Yes, but you can see this both ways. You could also say that there isn't any purpose to be found anywhere else, so all the purpose must be in the recursive grind of continuing - or growing, or exploring, which are a couple of other values. Learning. If we have this idea of purpose, why not attach it to some candidate quest or value? What's wrong with recursion anyway? Too meaningless to be your goal? You must have higher ideas of purpose, then.
People have a ton of different values, but a lot of general agreement, because this is some knowledge about reality, moral knowledge, a work in progress.
sunrunner
7 hours ago
> You could also say that there isn't any purpose to be found anywhere else, so all the purpose must be in the recursive grind of continuing
I really like this angle and do find my own solace in this approach, but I've never quite been able to convince myself that it's not essentially just an artificial or manufactured purpose. Which is fine. It's useful for my own goals and personal growth. But it still feels like a very localised view. If there is some kind of global maxima, I certainly haven't heard about it yet.
card_zero
6 hours ago
I worried about the ultimate purpose for years and years, and people would offer me unsatisfactory answers like "the point is, there is no point". But in the end I just looked up a long list of commonly held values, and thought: OK, so I don't agree with all of it, and what I'm left with is an incoherent laundry list of values, and the overview of the whole thing is very impressionistic, but fair enough. Got to be Popperian about it: we're guessing, badly, and trying gradually to do better. The point is, there are several vague points.
xenonite
9 hours ago
Specifically w.r.t to advertising: In socialist contries there is often only one single brand of a certain product. This removes the need for advertising. But without competition, productivity goes south with time.
WalterBright
8 hours ago
Socialist products never seem to be competitive in the world market. Nobody wanted to buy Soviet cars outside of the USSR, for example.
jncfhnb
8 hours ago
People seem to like Medicaid just fine though
OkayPhysicist
8 hours ago
There are notable exceptions. The AKM and RPG-7 are some of the most widely marketable weapons of all time.
WalterBright
8 hours ago
Yes, there are exceptions. The Soviets also poured resources into making quality watches.
But they were unable to generalize this.
After the Soviet Union collapsed, various companies sprang up to sell Soviet goods. I bought a marvelous small telescope, an old-fashioned electro-mechanical telephone, and a mechanical submarine clock. (Note that these were all obsolete technology.) They were all made by former military suppliers.
renewiltord
7 hours ago
Probably society would look worse. Almost everything in the world is search-dominated. E.g. one might as well say “if I didn’t have to inspect every element in arrays imagine how much faster I can sort them”. Well then there are lots of arrays you can’t sort. That’s life.
A large amount of labour is dedicated to the search problem. “What is valuable?” is a tough question. Pepper, nutmeg, mace made us a seafaring people. Easy to think “what if we only did the stuff we need” but is meaningless sentence. “What we need” is not something someone can state.
moffkalast
9 hours ago
About 1% of people are involved in farming, add a few more percent for food distribution, building maintenance and water bottling and you have your rough answer. Pretty much all of us are doing frivolous nonsense in survival terms.
card_zero
9 hours ago
[Something about supply chains.] Who makes bottles? Do the farmers have plows, or just pointy sticks? I guess it could look like the neolithic, if you allow them pottery, and that's a kind of survival, but do you also want to protect them from invasion and diseases? How much survival is the aim? Wouldn't science, and innovation, and creativity, help improve survival? So ... imagination? Comic books? Pets? Poodle manicurists? But of course survival ceases to be the main goal by this point.
WalterBright
8 hours ago
That frame doesn't account for all the technology and logistical support for farming. For example, where does his tractor come from? You need an industrial society to be able to build tractors, fuel them, etc. You need a transportation network to import oranges from Mexico. And so on.
Without a tractor, there'd be a major percentage of the population working on farms.
IAmBroom
7 hours ago
Survival also requires medicines, trained doctors and nurses, and medical devices. For starters.
spencerflem
9 hours ago
Something like 30% of our GDP is advertising - a pursuit I’d claim not just worthless but actively making everyone else’s life just a little worse.
Sports are part of what makes life worth living though :)
dragonwriter
9 hours ago
> Something like 30% of our GDP is advertising
It peaked at under 2.5% of GDP in the late 1990s, and is significantly less now.
https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2024/oct/rise-digi...
user
9 hours ago
FabHK
9 hours ago
Guess it depends on whether you consider Google, Facebook, Instagram, X, etc. to be tech or advertising.
spencerflem
8 hours ago
Yeah realized that was a pretty bad source. I know I had one I liked somewhere I’m trying to find. I think the 30% number might have been from Graeber’s bullshit jobs.
Definitely remember reading a number and being shocked at how high it was though
at-fates-hands
8 hours ago
You're both right, but were thinking in different terms:
As of 2025, advertising is responsible for approximately 21.9% of the total U.S. economic output, according to a study by S&P Global Market Intelligence commissioned by The Advertising Coalition. [prnewswire.com]
Here are some key figures from the study:
Total U.S. GDP (2024): $47.5 trillion
Advertising-driven economic activity: $10.4 trillion
Direct advertising spend: $491 billion
Jobs supported by advertising: 29 million (about 18.3% of the U.S. workforce)
So while direct advertising expenditures account for about 1–2% of GDP, the broader economic impact—including downstream sales and employee spending—brings the total contribution to nearly 22% of GDP.
dragonwriter
8 hours ago
> Advertising-driven economic activity: $10.4 trillion
That’s not advertising, that's almost entirely sales “stimulated by” advertising, which are, even in theory, sales the particular seller would not have made without advertising, but not, even in principal, necessarily additional economic activity from advertising.
So even in expanding “advertising” to “due to advertising”, its at best a vast overestimate (and the “jobs supported by advertising” statistic is downstream of that statistic and suffers the same problem when treated as if it were additional rather than largely reallocation.)
WalterBright
8 hours ago
Without advertising, how would you know what products were available? How would you know where to obtain them?
spencerflem
6 hours ago
Coke is the biggest spender - what about their product do we not know about?
WalterBright
6 hours ago
You know about them because of their advertising.
spencerflem
2 hours ago
When I see an ostrich chasing a limo driver and a liberty mutual jingle plays, I’m not being given any useful information.
I know about jarritos too and don’t recall having seen any ads for them.
If ads were useful and benefited my life, I’d watch them on purpose instead of them being forced on me.
lo_zamoyski
7 hours ago
I would make two points.
The first is that where labor is allocated is a function of culture. We currently live in a consumerist culture. Consumerist culture wants cheap stuff and lots of it and it wants it now. Convenience is god. And we want money so we can keep buying more things and newer things, so we work and work to make that money. Old things are frozen into museum pieces alien to everyday life instead of undergoing use and development and enrichment, because they make no sense to us and we can't develop things as we don't have a direction. So whereas a gothic church may have previously received baroque spires if the gothic was meager, today, most modifications are bound to look like a downgrade. Think of the really awful proposals for the rebuilding of Notre Dame. Save for a few brain damaged architects, nobody liked them.
The second is that leisure is the source of all culture. I'm not talking about recreation or relaxing by the pool with a piña colada (nothing wrong with that per se, but this is not what leisure means). Leisure is activity that isn't oriented toward practical ends, at least not in the intention. They are the activity of a free man, at least at that moment. This spirit of leisure was at times festive, at times contemplative and worshipful (the highest form of leisure), at times something artistic and musical. Today, we live in a world of total work. Work defines us. Whereas the cultures that produced the beautiful architecture we all admire today worked for the sake of leisure, today we work for the sake of work. We are engines running in a parking lot. We can rev them at high horsepower, perhaps even move aimlessly around the parking lot, but we aren't going anywhere. We don't have an address to go to.
The word "culture" is related to the word "cult" and "cultivation". Whereas in previous ages people believed in the transcendent end of human persons, a belief that ordered their lives and generated their culture, what does a consumerist culture take as the highest good? What is the end of our lives if not the ash heap? This can only produce weariness and distraction and entertainment that has no patience for authentic play or for the kinds of efforts that outlive us. There is no love in consumerism. There is no heroism. There is no genuine awe inspired by a great, honest-to-God promise. There is no festivity or celebration. The salt has lost its flavor and is good for nothing except to be thrown out and trampled underfoot.