cs702
7 hours ago
According to Indian regulators, every trading day Jane Street would:
1) buy large volumes of stocks and/or stock futures that are part of an index tracking India’s banking sector, early in the day,
2) subsequently place large options trades, betting that the index would decline or volatility would spike later in the day, and
3) later in the day, cash out of the large long positions, dragging the index lower, making far more money on the options trades than on the long positions.
Jane Street can and likely will claim the firm was only arbitraging away pricing inefficiencies, nothing more, nothing less. It was just business as usual, etc., etc.
However, given the scale of the operation, Jane Street's actions sure look like textbook market manipulation. Calling it like I see it.
Workaccount2
5 minutes ago
And this is what some of the brightest minds in the country are being harvested to develop. One of the biggest ongoing travesties.
conditionnumber
5 hours ago
Don't know about Jane Street, but that sounds like a general problem.
If options & futures are more liquid than the underlying, someone will be tempted to nudge the underlying.
Bond ETFs and their options chains seem like another locale where this could happen.
throwaway2037
3 hours ago
> If options & futures are more liquid than the underlying, someone will be tempted to nudge the underlying.
This is a weird statement. Why would liquidity matter here? As a point of reference there are generally two types of options: (1) options that depend directly upon the underlying, like a Tesla stock option, or (2) options that depend indirectly upon the underlying, like options on S&P 500 index futures. The liquidity in category 2 is normally tiny. Cat 1 normally has far less liquidity than the underlying.Why is the adjective "more" important here? Even if less, the opportunity to profit is still good, assuming that one chooses the path of market manipulation.
lmm
2 hours ago
What matters is the volume rather than the liquidity per se, but the two are generally pretty well correlated. The point is that moving a market costs money, making a trade moves the market against that trade, so even if someone is deliberately trying to move a market they'll pay more than they could ever hope to recoup. The exception is when there's a derivative market that has more volume than the underlying - in that case profitable manipulation becomes possible, as you can spend to move the underlying, losing money, but making more money on the derivatives where you'd bought the other side.
PartiallyTyped
2 hours ago
Heavy gamma exposure also helps move the market by forcing dealers to hedge in some particular direction.
toomuchtodo
an hour ago
During the memestock craze, retail traders were able to create a gamma squeeze due to this forced hedging.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/what-gamma-squeeze-understan...
ivape
5 hours ago
I have a suspicion this has been happening with a particular MAG7 stock these last few months, but I can't fully convince myself such a large stock can be manipulated like that.
pclmulqdq
4 hours ago
At least one of those stocks tends to have a comparatively thin order book.
throwaway2037
3 hours ago
Google tells me:
> Coined in 2023, the group consists of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla.
Which one?pclmulqdq
2 hours ago
Tesla
artemisyna
4 hours ago
Oh?
georgemcbay
an hour ago
> but I can't fully convince myself such a large stock can be manipulated like that.
I have the same initial reluctance to believe it that you do, but less so when I remind myself that we live in a world where the Social Security Administration sent out a mass email praising the passing of the "big beautiful bill".
I think our built-up understanding of how the US government functions at a baseline has not caught up to recent events. Especially in regards to how much regulatory bodies are doing their traditional jobs vs being forced to sit on their hands, or in some cases just not even existing anymore.
jeromegv
29 minutes ago
Someone gets it. If you keep cutting budget of people trying to make sure the rules are followed, what do you think is going to happen?
naveen99
6 hours ago
Ok, but what moron was selling them the puts , and not seeing the pattern after a couple of days of this ? Sebi logic seems questionable.
pclmulqdq
5 hours ago
I assume the moron in question was using Black-Scholes or some similar formula to price those options, and refused to update their prior when they lost money day after day. This happens quite a bit in derivatives markets.
rybosworld
4 hours ago
Black-Scholes is rarely used to actually price options. It's most commonly used to back out what the current implied volatility is.
pclmulqdq
4 hours ago
Things like Black-Scholes (using past volatility of the underlying to model the probability distribution in the future) are often used by market makers to price options, but the vanilla version never is.
rybosworld
4 hours ago
Any market maker pricing options with Black-Scholes won't be a market maker for long.
Black-Scholes is just a customer-facing description of the option (i.e, it provides greeks that everyone can understand). But it isn't used as a starting point.
In practice, MM will back out what the implied volatility is from current prices. Then a stochastic volatility model is calibrated against that.
mcakes
32 minutes ago
No - no market maker is using stochastic volatility. (L)SV is only used for exotics. Market makers use a tricked out Black Scholes where the 'secret sauce' is in how you apply the chain rule when you calculate the greeks.
isatty
5 hours ago
But why would they refuse to? They're there to make money too, after all.
kragen
3 hours ago
Maybe they have buddies at SEBI who can freeze their counterparty's assets and return the half-billion dollars they lost back to them.
andrepd
4 hours ago
That's not really how it works, the market making firms would essentially have to update their vol curves in response to that signal (BS being essentially just a coordinate change from price to volatility).
msgodel
5 hours ago
Yeah that seems like it should push the premium higher. Even if it's some institution with very bad quantitative models eventually the careless put writers should run out of shares/capital to secure the puts with and get liquidated.
throwaway2037
3 hours ago
> what moron
In India, it is clearly retail investors in the recent retail derivs boom.lopatin
6 hours ago
Presumably retail options traders and less sophisticated firms
naveen99
6 hours ago
Yeah, I think volatility in the indian market was way too low, and Jane street just juiced it. normally that would be a losing proposition, but too many existing players were short volatility habitually… answer is not to kick Jane street out, but to enjoy the taxes Jane street pays on the gains…
lumost
6 hours ago
Low volatility is good for everyone engaged in long term asset management. Jane Street just found a way to make everyone else less money while making a small amount for themselves.
MichaelZuo
5 hours ago
> Low volatility is good for everyone engaged in long term asset management.
According to who?
There are plenty of pension funds nowdays that have people specialized in picking up mid sized companies after big drops.
mrcode007
5 hours ago
it’s a known effect. Without going into details here, you can calculate first crossing time of a barrier in a stochastic process and observe that often the first crossing time decreases as the volatility increases. From there you can set one barrier at 0 (default) and draw your own conclusion.
user
2 hours ago
steveBK123
6 hours ago
Retail
sillysaurusx
2 hours ago
When I worked at Scotttrade in 2010, I vividly remember my coworker telling me that this is what they did with the money too. I remember being surprised to hear that it flowed out in the morning and flowed back in in the evening. I never understood why that would make sense till I read your comment here.
It’s all hearsay; I’m just reporting what I heard. I don’t know the implications of it, but maybe this isn’t exactly uncommon behavior, even if it’s market manipulation.
The coworker said that the money flowed overseas too, if that helps contextualize it. No SEC, no problem, right?
Looks like Jane Street is an American firm, so, this all lines up and corroborates what you’re saying. What we’re seeing is probably the first time a government other than the US has reacted to this behavior.
hotep99
2 hours ago
I'm sure they're doing it domestically too, but due to the relative size of the markets and currency conversions what amounts to a serious disruption in the Indian stock market would just be background noise that gets ignored in a US market.
ladberg
an hour ago
This strategy by definition wouldn't work if it was "background noise" because it relies on being able to move the market
Horffupolde
6 hours ago
So why can’t other players detect this behavior and trade with JS, removing their edge?
posnet
5 hours ago
Most exchanges do not reveal counter-party information smaller than the broker level. So you wouldn't know just from looking at market activity the same person causing the large futures move was also taking large options positions.
londons_explore
5 hours ago
Doesn't matter - see a pattern, exploit it - and in doing so, make profit yourself whilst reducing the pattern.
jayd16
2 hours ago
Simply look at the market patterns and make a profit, duh! Why doesn't everyone do that?!
SpicyLemonZest
an hour ago
The pattern was exploitable only on the specific days that Jane Street was allegedly manipulating. How would you have figured out, without counterparty information and before noisy sales start dragging down the index, that day X is a manipulation day?
How would you have identified that there's even such a thing as a manipulation day? Do you have a model that tells you the objectively correct number of days a non-manipulated index should be lower at close?
efavdb
4 hours ago
Yes claim is price is high at open low at close. Seems pretty straightforward.
0xDEAFBEAD
2 hours ago
Why not reveal counter-party info?
steveBK123
6 hours ago
The other firms compliance departments
Horffupolde
6 hours ago
The other firms are not manipulating the market. They are just riding along the manipulator.
anticensor
5 hours ago
It is a crime to assist a crime.
Horffupolde
5 hours ago
You are not assisting. If anything you are making it less profitable.
cwmoore
6 hours ago
Point taken, but maybe gov’s a player too?
Den_VR
6 hours ago
Maybe, but given the reputation of Indian regulators I’m skeptical Jane Street’s only sin was the alleged market manipulation.
People may recall the matter involving Adani Group. https://hindenburgresearch.com/adani-update-sebi/
dyauspitr
6 hours ago
Seems presumptive to slander an entire nations regulatory group on a single/couple of examples. By that metric the regulatory group in the US is completely bought out since they let 2008 happen.
sealeck
6 hours ago
There's a difference between "letting" something happen and actively doing something – it shows very different intentions. The events of 2008 were also caused by a cascading system failure involving lots of different components, which are hard for a single human to fully understand. The actions of the Indian regulator in the Adani case are much simpler, and their motivation is straightforward.
dyauspitr
6 hours ago
One rotten regulator doesn’t mean you get to view the entire Indian regulatory environment as unreliable though. It’s the 4th/5th largest financial market in the world.
Den_VR
5 hours ago
Is SEBI not the key regulator in this area?
To say it plainly, SEBI has been exposed for their selective enforcement on high-profile entities. If Jane Street’s in trouble with SEBI then it’s only because they failed to secure the same privileges as Adani, or Karvy, or Ramkrishna, or Sapre, or Kamath.
fastball
2 hours ago
Does the size of a market have some positive impact on the reliability of its regulatory body that I am not aware of?
throwaway2037
2 hours ago
> Seems presumptive to slander an entire nations regulatory group on a single/couple of examples.
How about Germany's BAFIN regulator after VW's Deiselgate or Wirecard bankruptcy? BAFIN's response was weak and slow in both cases. I am willing to slander them for "just" those two mistakes.Den_VR
6 hours ago
Slander? Now there’s a strong word.
Examples of the 2023-2025 activities of the Indian securities regulator SEBI seem pretty relevant to current news involving SEBI here in 2025. Which is the topic of discussion. Whatever US regulators were doing in 2008 has nothing to do with this.
CPLX
5 hours ago
> By that metric the regulatory group in the US is completely bought out since they let 2008 happen.
Not sure that makes the point you think it makes.
throwaway2037
3 hours ago
> However, given the scale of the operation, Jane Street's actions sure look like textbook market manipulation. Calling it like I see it.
I am unsure that the US SEC would agree with you. Buying and selling "a lot" is not clearly market manipulation in the US.Finally, in my view the India SEBI rules are insanely vague and are written to grant a lot of leeway to the regulator.
The real problem that no one is talking about: Why is India allowing its derivatives markets to explode? An estimated NINETY percent of retail derivs "investors" (I prefer the term "gamblers") lose money in India. Lots of these loses are gains for foreign banks and hedge funds. India: What the hell are you doing!?
adw
an hour ago
It’s legal gambling (same as the retail crypto and stock trades in the US). I’d expect that the legalisation of sports markets in the US has meaningfully moved exploitable punters out of the markets and into the bookmakers.
futevolei
3 hours ago
I’m not sure you are seeing it clearly..or have any trading experience whatsoever. They took substantial risk. There is always someone bigger so if they were wrong they could have been buried. Then they reversed. If there are allegations of insider trading or collusion or something else then I’m ready to pile on but I don’t see anything here.
tyre
3 hours ago
Both can be true:
- They were taking a substantial risk.
- They were manipulating the market.
olalonde
2 hours ago
I never quite understood why market manipulation is illegal. If market participants make emotional or irrational decisions detached from fundamentals, it should be on them.
f33d5173
an hour ago
While markets are used as a form of gambling, they also have a prosocial purpose, namely to allocate capital which improves the economy and society at large. Market manipulation increases market volatility and hence hurts efficient capital allocation, without some other benefit for the market. Besides that, it requires large amounts of capital to do, and hence can be effectively regulated.
olalonde
an hour ago
Most of the stock market activity is secondary trading, which has little to do with allocating capital. Trading existing shares just redistributes ownership.
user
2 hours ago
dgfitz
3 hours ago
Jane Street called the bluff of that market. Occams razor.
stefan_
7 hours ago
Hardly a sophisticated high tech HFT operation. Totally illegal of course, except in places that maybe don't have the regulatory rigeur.
cs702
6 hours ago
Hardly a sophisticated strategy, indeed, but Jane Street was earning like $1B/year of profit on it, according to https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44483691
whatever1
6 hours ago
Someone has to pay for the OCAML maintenance
ldjkfkdsjnv
5 hours ago
all that OCAML we only hire the smartest is often a veil for what is really a simpler operation that is borderline illegal. probably alot of employees dont even really understand the systems they work on
senderista
an hour ago
We just send the rockets up, where they land isn’t our department
theirjehdirhdij
4 hours ago
Unsurprising that unethical but "righteous" crooks like SBF and his pals came out of that place.
I imagine Jane Street will also justify this with some EA bullshit, or like Soros during the 97 crisis just say "someone would do it ; may as well me".