ctoth
a day ago
The formula is so consistent: cherry-pick some disappointments, interpret any pivot as retreat, claim the hype is unsustainable, predict imminent collapse, position yourself as the sober realist. Rinse and repeat every 6-12 months, adjusting the timeline when the previous prediction fails to materialize.
alganet
21 hours ago
His prediction of self-driving cars being a fiasco does not need any adjustment, and it stands after 7 years.
JLO64
20 hours ago
Living in LA where there are plenty of Waymo cars constantly driving around, I strongly disagree with that.
alganet
19 hours ago
Yes, 400 of them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waymo#Robotaxis
LA has more than 6,000,000 cars.
That is how strong you can disagree with me. 400 out of 6,000,000. And I'm being kind by considering just LA.
joak
7 hours ago
What counts is not the total numbers of cars today but the growth rate of this number.
Ten doublings is 1000x
alganet
4 hours ago
Waymo was founded in 2004. That's a very slow growth rate.
So far, the prediction made in 2018 stands. Self-driving car companies lose money, and are a fiasco.
Maybe that will change in the future, but that's the future. We'll talk about that then.