I'd be reluctant to place a bet just because Musk is aware of the market and has the ability to manipulate it.

I'd want some kind of qualifier that the service has to last at least a month without being canceled or degraded below the point of the launch condition. Musk could rush something out and then be forced to pull it, and I wouldn't consider that making the deadline.

If the service was likely to happen, Tesla employees would pile into the bets. I imagine they are some fear of being outed for betting against their employer.

Fool me once, shame on you

Fool me twice, shame on me

Fool me 35 times, it's safe to say I enjoy it