adrian_b
5 days ago
The fact that many trans-Neptunian bodies have weird orbits is not a correct argument for the existence of an extra big planet beyond them in the present time.
It is only evidence that at some moment in the past there was something big out there, which has perturbed their orbits.
In 2024 there have been published a few papers which propose that a star has passed close to the Solar System in the past and its passage has caused all the unusual orbits that we see in the outer Solar System.
This seems more plausible than an undiscovered big planet.
Qem
5 days ago
> This seems more plausible than an undiscovered big planet.
Both are plausible, both are intriguing. To determine what in fact happened there's no way around looking up and searching until we exhaust the possibilities. Kudos for Terry Phan and his team for putting in the work, regardless of what hypothesis it ends strenghtening.
adrian_b
5 days ago
Evidence for a currently existing outer planet would be provided only when we would see changes in the orbits of the known bodies.
Unusual values of the orbital parameters are only evidence for something that has happened in the past.
Tuna-Fish
5 days ago
We never will see such changes for anything as far out as the hypothetical planet nine. The orbital periods for objects beyond 100AU are measured in thousands of years, as far as our observations go they might as well be stationary.
Yes, unusual values for orbital parameters are only evidence that something happened in the past, but that thing that happened in the past might have been "close approach with a planet". And as a hypothesis, this is in no way less valid or likely than a flyby with a star.
russdill
5 days ago
We observe a clustering of orbits, they are correlated. If the object went away the clustering would degrade until there was no longer a signal.
adrian_b
5 days ago
Orbits do not change by themselves, but only under the influence of another big celestial body, when kinetic energy, momentum and angular momentum are transferred between the interacting bodies.
There is no such thing as a degradation of an orbit.
The fact that the clustering has not degraded is actually evidence for the opposite fact, that the body that has perturbed all those orbits is no longer there.
Tuna-Fish
4 days ago
What? No. Maybe in solar systems without a Jupiter.
Apsidal precession makes the aphelion of eccentric orbits rotate around the Sun over time. The rate at which this happens depends highly on their orbital characteristics, meaning that if something perturbed their orbits to point in a specific direction, over a relatively short timescale (single digit millions of years), you would expect their aphelions to point in essentially random directions.
The fact that TNO orbits seem to cluster into specific directions is strong evidence that something is actively maintaining their orbits, by repeatedly perturbing them.
A large planet that's quite far out is a reasonable hypothesis for what's doing this. (It's not the only one.)
willvarfar
5 days ago
But were a search to _find_ planet 9, would you still be holding out for changes?
andrewflnr
5 days ago
If you made a direct detection, the orbits vs changes question would become immaterial.
devb
5 days ago
> This seems more plausible than an undiscovered big planet.
Why?
adrian_b
5 days ago
As I have already written in another comment, only if we would see changes in the orbits of the known bodies, then that would be evidence for a currently existing outer planet.
The parent article contains several sentences like "The six most distant known objects in the solar system with orbits exclusively beyond Neptune (magenta) all mysteriously line up in a single direction."
All those sentences do not support the existence of an outer planet now, they only demonstrate that at some moment in the past there was a big body in that direction.
The papers that I have linked report the results for the simulation of the close passage of a star in the past, which match pretty well what we see now in the outer Solar System.
Such close encounters between stars are known to happen from time to time, because superposed on the general rotation around the galaxy center all stars have random own motions, so the distances between them are changing all the time and even collisions are possible.
jajko
5 days ago
We detect planets elsewhere by either them passing in front of the star or star wobbling IIRC. How come we can't detect this hypothetical big outer body by Sun wobbling a bit? We are pretty close to see minute changes. If its there it must have some effect, no?
kristianc
5 days ago
My understanding is that radial velocity detection only works when you’re watching the entire system from afar. Since Earth is part of the solar system, we’re inside the moving frame. We can’t measure the Sun’s wobble relative to the solar system barycentre without comparing it to some external fixed reference.
ddahlen
5 days ago
2 big reasons, first is that wobbles which we normally observe require that the star move enough to be detected on a shorter time scale. IE: if the orbit takes 100 years and we look twice in 5 years, the planet will have only moved 5% of an orbit and the wobble will be near 0. Second is the less mass and further the planet is away, the less noticeable the wobble. Something at 500 au is going to produce no measurable wobble in our lifetime.
bagels
5 days ago
There are other ways besides seeing changes in orbits to confirm the existence of a body. Venus, Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn are easily seen with the eye, for instance.
Planet 9 might be confirmed with infrared surveys as a post from last week discussed or some other method.
adrian_b
5 days ago
You are right, I was only replying to the parent article, where the incorrect argument was stated, that the orbits pointing to an external attractor mean that it exists now in that direction.
There may be one or more big planets at great distances from the Sun, but not for the reason stated in the parent article, which is better explained by an ancient star flyby.
charlieyu1
5 days ago
From the first link:
> The Solar System planets accumulated from a disk of dust and gas that once orbited the Sun. Therefore, the planets move close to their common plane on near-circular orbits. About 3,000 small objects have been observed to orbit the Sun beyond Neptune (rp > 35 au); surprisingly, most move on eccentric and inclined orbits. Therefore, some force must have lifted these trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) from the disk where they formed and altered their orbits markedly.
I feel there is a strong bias towards objects that are only discoverable because of their highly eccentric orbit
metalman
5 days ago
just thinking the same thing "something big out there", and that has ,ha!, huge implications, like is there any model for failed giant planets orbiting as diffuse blobs of stuff, way ,way out there, or several less big blobs that like up and give a good tug once in a while, rings with lumps in the oort cloud? we know there are chunks out there big enough to ruin your whole planet, but that are essentialy invisible from here, so the mass could be there, and could be more organised than we realise, but still realy tricky to see.
lupusreal
5 days ago
No, it's evidence which supports both hypotheses, without ruling out either. More evidence is needed.
user
5 days ago