klabb3
3 days ago
It’s good to see a new fresh push for protocols and interop. However, I don’t think it will do the thing we hope for, for non-technical reasons.
During Web 2.0, we saw similar enthusiasm. Instead of AI agents or blockchain, every modern company had an API exposed. For instance, Gmail- and Facebook chat was usable with 3p client apps.
What killed this was not tech, but business. The product wasn’t say social media, it was ad delivery. And using APIs was considered a bypass of funnels that they want to control. Today, if you go to a consumer service website, you will generally be met with a login/app wall. Even companies that charge money directly (say 23&me ad an egregious example) are also data hoarders. Apple is probably a better example. There’s no escape.
The point is, protocols is the easy part. If the economics and incentives are the same as yesterday, we will see similar outcomes. Today, the consumer web is adversarial between provider ”platforms”, ad delivery, content creators, and the products themselves (ie the people who use them).
lorepieri
2 days ago
I really like this analysis. But what about companies allowing agents to interact natively (via API or similar) getting more of the agents inbound since agents are more optimised to go there? If people want to use agents it will cause a lot of lost revenue for companies not allowing agents to interact natively.
klabb3
2 days ago
It’s only lost revenue if the interactions were providing revenue in the first place. And for consumer tech, if you take away the ability to control the ad-funnels and engagement knobs, there is no revenue to gain. Why do you think all APIs got locked down? Nowadays even pure html delivery is getting locked down to prevent scraping. You think the SEO optimized recipe click holes are incentivized to deliver the content without the ads?
I mean, it’s not impossible that consumers will ignore sites and services that don’t play with their AI. But even so, the content providers would need to find alternative revenue streams – otherwise they’d be bleeding money.
My prediction is that tech companies will continue to compete for dominance over the entry points, apps and human interactions. It will be an adversarial space where coalitions of vertically integrated walled gardens can work. Basically how it is already.