The American economy has left other rich countries in the dust

29 pointsposted 9 hours ago
by miles

66 Comments

anvil-on-my-toe

31 minutes ago

Phrases like "the American economy is booming" or "America is out-performing Europe..." are simplistic and ridiculous. My least favorite part of getting a degree in economics was the endless story-telling that pretends to be scientific. "America" is not equivalent to the asset portfolios of the richest 1% of the population. Just say what you're measuring (rich people's wealth) and don't try to dress it up as a measure of a thriving nation. Don't call it "America" or "the economy", call it GDP.

Purchasing power is down, birth rates are down, life expectancies are down, young people's expectations of the future are down. We should account for things we care about when we talk about how the country is doing.

loeg

8 minutes ago

Purchasing power is up, actually.

Life expectancies are not a conventional measure of "the economy" but also (IMO) likely to improve in the medium term with widespread use of GLP-1 drugs.

As far as young people -- I'm not sure. There is certainly a Taylor Lorenz adjacent crowd of "doomers" but I don't think they're representative of the median young adult.

anvil-on-my-toe

a minute ago

No, purchasing power is down. Costs of living have gone up faster than wages. Gold and assets are all more expensive because the USD is worth less than it was.

Young people are doing bad. Depression, self harm, suicide, isolation, all up; unable to earn enough to move out and start a family, go on vacation, spend money on entertainment with friends. A bunch of basic economic activity and quality of life things for young people are indeed very down.

corimaith

29 minutes ago

Everything you've listed is apparent in other countries and even more so. Even today, anybody ambitious would kill for the kind of opportunities Americans have.

rqtwteye

24 minutes ago

"anybody ambitious would kill for the kind of opportunities Americans have"

That's probably true for the very ambitious. I think the US doesn't work as well for people who just want to have a decent life.

BizarroLand

21 minutes ago

You're talking about the lottery winners, comparing the wealth and opportunities of the top 50,000 Americans to the average joes of the world and overlooking the reality of the other 369,950,000 Americans who have roughly the same quality of life that the people in your country do.

I'm from Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, the poorest location in America. I have memories of my uncles sleeping in the snow, 14 people stuffed into a 2 bedroom home, dirty streets and boredom being the norm, no jobs and what little money was to be had spent across state lines in White Clay for cheap liquor.

There are far more of people like us than there are the people living the lifestyles of the rich and the famous. Don't stab your brother in the back in hopes of being one of them.

user

19 minutes ago

[deleted]

u-2-silly

24 minutes ago

Let's not forget:

- US Military patrolling the world's shipping lanes-- with US Citizens & Companies tax dollars directly subsidizing the price of oil & international goods for a significant portion of the world (the prices would be higher without some outside country prividing protection)

- US Military bases-- 750 in 80 countries-- with US Citizens & Companies tax dollars directly subsidizing the security of a significant portion of the world

As an American, I really wish we left the world to their own devices, and paid for their own security and shipping lane protection. The world takes the US for granted. I think we should let them squabble for a few years, then beg us to come back-- when we have them leaning over a barrel, then we charge high fees :P

dehrmann

14 minutes ago

The US has been borrowing money from the world to pay for the world policing duties. Leaving the debate over those for another day, I'm worried the world will stop borrowing dollars that subsidize that service, and the US will be left holding the bag for the cost of it.

Workaccount2

7 minutes ago

The terrible reality for the world is that the world needs the US more than the US needs the world. Unless of course the idea of China running the global stage is appealing.

user

20 minutes ago

[deleted]

slothtrop

21 minutes ago

Then take note of GDP-per-capita growth. The whole of the developed world had to deal with inflation and financial repercussions of covid. What's exceptional is the US recovery and the fact is economic conditions in the US has improved at a more rapid pace.

> young people's expectations of the future are down

Relative to?

> birth rates are down

Absent GDP, this matters because...? The country is growing as a matter of policy through immigration.

> Purchasing power is down

Wages are recovering

iwontberude

23 minutes ago

Actually in the US, real wages increased in the last several years (adjusted for inflation) so actually purchasing power is up on average. The data is always changing, good to keep up to date!

slowmovintarget

25 minutes ago

Right. Our food lines are merely shorter than those in other countries. Sigh.

rubymancer

25 minutes ago

> Average wages in America’s poorest state, Mississippi, are higher than the averages in Britain, Canada and Germany.

This doesn't sound right.

Googling around, the median income (a much better metric than average) between Mississippi and Germany are about the same.

A huge difference: Britain, Canada and Germany don't have to pay for health care and education. I'm not sure how to factor that in, but something tells me if you do you'll find our Canadian and European friends are doing drastically better than those in Jackson, MS.

apercu

2 minutes ago

I lived in Ontario for ~18 years. While national healthcare is fantastic (and the US should totally have it), Canadians are getting squeezed, and have been for the last 5-6 years.

randomdata

6 minutes ago

> but something tells me if you do you'll find our Canadian [...] friends are doing drastically better than those in Jackson, MS.

Perhaps true, but also keep in mind that Canada and the US were on more equal standing until the last five years or so, when we started to see a significant divergence. You can ride on the past for a while. Assuming the trend continues, it may simply be that it is too early to see Canada turn into Mississippi.

hollerith

9 minutes ago

>Britain, Canada and Germany don't have to pay for health care and education

That is not true: British taxpayers have to pay for the health care and education of Brits.

The point is that when you add the money the government spends on you plus the money you spend on yourself, America has significantly more money per-person to go around.

What you should have written is that although America spends more money on health care per person than Britain does, Americans have worse health, so the money is spent less efficiently than in Britain.

(It is also true that America spends more on "criminal justice", e.g., prisons, but has more crime, so the criminal-justice money must be being spent less efficiently.)

legitster

13 minutes ago

Median income can also be misleading. If the government is taking on lots of debts to pay for things like health care or education, that's not necessarily sustainable economics.

GDP Per Capita is overall the best metric when thinking on a long-term economic scale.

As to how the people in Jackson, MS are doing - a lot of this comes down to what communities are doing with that wealth. There are lots of young professionals having decent lives, even in Mississippi - but a lot of that wealth disappears into cars and big private properties and other unequally distributed things.

ch4s3

19 minutes ago

> but something tells me if you do you'll find our Canadian and European friends are doing drastically better than those in Jackson, MS.

This will show a lot of selection bias. Any Europeans with American friends who are in the forum are unlikely to be representative of the median German/Brit.

I have a cousin who is a mid-level manager in a steel plant in southern Illinois near near Missouri and he lives like a petty king. I've known FedEx drivers with lake houses in low cost of living areas. Middle income people in low cost of living states often live quite well in the US.

spacebanana7

17 minutes ago

Europeans and Canadians might be healthier and better educated, but its very unlikely they'll earn more than an American electrician.

jhoechtl

12 minutes ago

The European has paid leave and a somewhat existing medicare system. I do not think this is taken into the equation?

spacebanana7

3 minutes ago

GDP calculations capture the difference between paid / unpaid leave, and government healthcare spending.

It can be argued that Europeans are happier than Americans, but not that they're wealthier than Americans.

bradleyankrom

22 minutes ago

You'd think The Economist would know better than to use the average there. Stats 101. Geez.

mistermann

21 minutes ago

The ability of people to actually receive free medical services has certainly been in a downward trend over the last decade or so.

roughly

32 minutes ago

A lot of the charm of this kind of triumphalism wears off when one spends time in those other rich countries. It becomes rather sharply obvious on one’s return what America has traded off while min-maxing its GDP score.

ahmeneeroe-v2

24 minutes ago

Those other countries' wealth is often mostly composed of the kind of thing that is easy to enjoy as a tourist and hard to enjoy as a resident.

E.g. beautiful real estate that is owned by the same family that owned it hundreds of years ago. An American tourist can rent space there and enjoy but a resident can never hope to earn enough to buy a piece of that.

or amazing public transit, which to a resident is just a commute to work but an American tourist sees the novelty in

spacebanana7

13 minutes ago

> when one spends time in those other rich countries

Visitors usually get a warped view of the places they visit. You can't judge the UK by London, for example.

amadeuspagel

21 minutes ago

The Economist is a british magazine. It's not triumphalism if they claim that the US is doing better then the rest of the world.

Workaccount2

26 minutes ago

America is the ultimate example of fortune favors the fortunate.

A well diversified economic powerhouse with a friendly neighbor to the north and a cheap labor neighbor to the south, comparatively politically stable, and annnddd its energy independent?

America is ridiculously OP from an economics standpoint. Even more over it only looks like the position is going to strengthen, at least until either AI or climate change upend everything.

user

22 minutes ago

[deleted]

legitster

22 minutes ago

The important thing being missed here is that America, unlike the rest of the G7 or China against which it is being compared, is not aging as rapidly.

Take the book with a massive grain of salt, but the mechanisms are well described in The Accidental Superpower.

mjamesaustin

29 minutes ago

GDP is increasingly a poor measure of economic well being, as wealth inequality becomes so bad a handful of individuals capture the lion's share of growth.

sheefrex

16 minutes ago

Sometimes I like to think of GDP as a measure of economic (productive) power more than well-being. But other indicators are more important for the long-term, such as those on demographics, education, debt levels, etc. You probably don't want to sacrifice those for a transient boost in GDP.

slothtrop

17 minutes ago

GDP-per-capita is a thing

jhoechtl

15 minutes ago

In the past the Us making other countries poor via the printing press was very often the applicable explanation.

Is it now any different?

InDubioProRubio

an hour ago

But the us american economy is subsidized by everyone on the planet that trades in us currency and thus buys up the money its able to print. So those numbers are- dubious baseball stats at best?

seizethecheese

4 minutes ago

This feels not even wrong.

The American economy is generating massive amounts of goods and services. This is a relatively hard fact.

The effect of the dollar being a worldwide currency is complex and not so straightforward. Strong demand for dollars actually would increase dollar value, which would increase borrowing costs, ceteris paribus. The US then increases money supply, to accommodate. It’s unclear that this dramatically increases GDP.

Unless your assertion is that the financial industry is overdeveloped? I don’t think it’s more than 10% of GDP off the top of my head.

LUmBULtERA

40 minutes ago

I don't buy the assumption that others are "subsidizing" the USD when they choose to use it -- they're choosing to use USD for their own benefit.

r3trohack3r

34 minutes ago

I disagree with OPs conclusion but not the thesis.

I do, currently, think there is some level of “subsidizing” (wrong word) happening in the west.

USD is the wests reserve currency. It’s held by many western countries and much of western trade is denominated it in.

When the US prints money, they dilute the western reserve currency. It lets the US spend the value of every USD holder (including the value of debt denominated in the currency).

In other words, I think the US can spend the value of a large slice of the western economy (not just its domestic economy) on its own infrastructure and military projects through inflation by printing money.

adamnemecek

31 minutes ago

Choosing is the wrong word as there aren’t many other choices.

datadrivenangel

37 minutes ago

The US Dollar is an export.

It'll be hard for our economy if we stop exporting it, but that's true of any export.

TrainedMonkey

27 minutes ago

U.S. dollar is reserve currency for a significant portion of the world. This means when U.S. can inject a lot higher fraction of the GPD into the economy for the same inflation cost. As a matter of fact U.S. wants some inflation to devalue high amount of debt they have - so there is an incentive to print USD.

ambicapter

42 minutes ago

What makes that dubious? It makes this advantage rest on a single factor, but the advantage is still there, no?

CoastalCoder

39 minutes ago

I'm the furthest thing from an economist, but I'm guessing that it feels like we're in a vulnerable position.

I.e., that it indicates our "wealth" could be pulled away from us on very short notice.

Contrasted to, e.g the wealth being from sales of some commodity that the rest of the world will need for the next decade: crops, certain metals, or (maybe) oil/LNG.

busterarm

32 minutes ago

It's not just that. Compare the GDP per capita of individual US States to other countries. Even the poorest performing US State is still doing better than most of Europe.

vanrysss

29 minutes ago

I'd invite you to visit Mississippi and then any of the top five EU countries and let me know which one you'd rather live in.

r2_pilot

23 minutes ago

Some people who actually live in Mississippi do so by choice, ya know, and feel that it's important to contribute to the improvement of the citizenry. But yeah, take the local minimum and compare it, apples to oranges, to a local maxima of a top EU country. Even so, there's still a lot going for Mississippi.

busterarm

27 minutes ago

Oh I am well aware, but that's more of a slam on those countries for having such poor economic product. Low GDP means lack of growth and lack of opportunity in the future.

Then consider that Luxembourg and Ireland only top the list as a result of being tax havens for the world's rich. The picture looks grim.

Mississippi isn't well populated but most European countries are...so while those countries may be nicer places to live now, Mississippi's future looks brighter.

20 years of totally flat GDP growth capped by a brutal recession was more than enough for Sweden to switch gears and backpedal on an enormous amount of social welfare policy in the early 90s.

legitster

11 minutes ago

This is a terrible, terrible understanding of how international trade works. It's also not even relevant when comparing GDPR per capita.

mistrial9

an hour ago

It is ridiculous on its face to compare America with other nations by raw numbers as if there were some single measure like that... dozens of quality-of-life and cost-of-living indicators in many regions of the USA are strongly in the opposite direction for many real households.

ten percent of people are vastly wealthier while fifty percent plus of people are worse off and more so ..

the machinery of economics are driving their own numbers. ref Piketty https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_in_the_Twenty-First_Ce...

ta1243

27 minutes ago

Yes, the US really leaves the bottom third behind

If you look at incomes for graduates in the US vs the UK, it's far higher. [0]

For non-graduates it's the same, and the social safety net in the UK is far better.

This ties into median wage in the UK being barely above minimum wage.

What this tells me is "don't bother educating yourself, just leave school asap and get a crap job stacking shelves"

The UK just isn't an attractive place for graduates to work in, and the few that are there (mainly in London and the south east [1]) massively subsidise the wealthy retired and the minimum wage jobs.

[0] https://www.ft.com/content/570d23b3-d286-4cb9-a319-b49cc4056...

[1] https://www.ft.com/content/e5c741a7-befa-4d49-a819-f1b0510a9...

oceanplexian

28 minutes ago

But we’re talking about economic output, not a qualitative assessment.

America has lower transaction costs, a better regulatory environment (e.g the EU with AI), better access to lending and investment, and a more robust consumer market. The US is clearly doing some things better.

ta1243

26 minutes ago

Not convinced that AI is doing things better. And transaction costs in what sense? The US banking system is an international joke, so I'm guessing you're talking the lack of language barrier?

mperham

23 minutes ago

Exactly. If the US economy is 10x larger but 90% of the economy is benefiting only the richest 0.1%, what's the point? Too many mainstream media pieces focus on overall GDP when they should be focused on averages.

The end of the article handwaves away this criticism.

> Many critics of America’s economic model contend that it is intrinsically flawed, beset by extreme inequality and ever-more dominant companies crushing competitors. But these are exaggerations. There may be scope for a fairer distribution of the country’s wealth without undermining America’s growth, but the widely held belief that the top 1% are taking it all is overdone.

Handwaving.

> As for tech behemoths such as Apple and Amazon, their potential for dominance must be watched and, if necessary, curtailed, but it is also true that they have generated incredible value in daily life and shaken up stodgy industries. And they face fierce competition to stay on top.

Where's the fierce competition? Apple and Google have a phone duopoly.

Measuring the economy is not measuring quality of life or health of the population.

jacknews

19 minutes ago

IMHO this is entirely miss-measurement or miss-characterization.

Probably if you look at dollar gains of stocks, land prices, etc you'll find Americans leading, but look at the actual lives of average people, and they are not so much better off, if at all. In other words it's mostly accounting/financial mirages.

recursivedoubts

35 minutes ago

And yet it doesn't make the top 20 in happiness.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/happiest-...

Really makes you think.

indoordin0saur

33 minutes ago

Money doesn't make you happy, although it helps. This is common knowledge.

DEADMEAT

21 minutes ago

That's a very privileged attitude. Certainly someone already wealthy will not get much more happiness from gaining more wealth, but for many Americans a few thousand dollars could be a life-changing amount of money.

slowmovintarget

23 minutes ago

Yes. Insufficient money can make you unhappy. After caring for needs, money won't make you happy.

user

32 minutes ago

[deleted]

slothtrop

28 minutes ago

"[...] specifically monitoring performance in six particular categories: gross domestic product per capita, social support, healthy life expectancy, freedom to make your own life choices, generosity of the general population, and perceptions of internal and external corruption levels."

US ranks pretty high in GDP-per-capita. Given the remaining factors, I imagine the obesity rate and intensified political polarization is skewing the result. The perceptions might be informed in large part by rate of consumption of news media content on social media (other developed countries have this problem, but lesser polarization may mute the impact).

Among good news is that the obesity rate has stalled in recent years, iirc.

rqtwteye

26 minutes ago

Does this translate into better quality of life for the majority of the population? I don't think so.