ls612
9 months ago
Climate policy fails because the proposals are eye-wateringly expensive, amounting to trillions of dollars annually. In contrast, the CFC protocols and treaties worked splendidly because they were cheap, costing only billions of dollars to switch to chemicals which didn’t interact with ozone.
Changing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is not the only way to change the climate, and is unlikely to be the cheapest way to change the climate. But acknowledging that would require having a diplomatic/societal technology to determine what the optimal climate should be.
ordu
9 months ago
> Changing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is not the only way to change the climate, and is unlikely to be the cheapest way to change the climate.
We are changing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere and it is the main driver for the climate change. You probably wanted to say, that not changing the amount of CO2 is unlikely to be the cheapest way to keep the climate as it is, didn't you?
Dylan16807
9 months ago
Well properly fixing the current issues would require removing a hundred years of CO2.
sien
9 months ago
Roger Pielke Jnr has coined "Pielke's Iron Law" .
It is :
"If there is an iron law of climate policy, it is that when policies focused on economic growth confront policies focused on emissions reductions, it is economic growth that will win out every time."
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-iron-law-of-climate...
It looks like a pretty good rule of thumb.
0xdde
9 months ago
Except the two are not mutually exclusive, and TFA points out that tax and price incentives tend to be successful. I would take anything from Pielke with a grain of salt. As much as he loves to pay lip service to supporting the most minor climate policies, he notoriously downplays the effects of climate change. But that's just par for the course to be on the AEI payroll, I suppose.
ProxCoques
9 months ago
I have a theory called "marginal cost pricing" that will blow his mind.
bamboozled
9 months ago
Aren't we going to lose Trillions of dollars forever to climate change anyway?
ls612
9 months ago
If we sit on our thumbs and do nothing about it perhaps (the uncertainty bars around long term damage are massive though). But changing CO2 levels is not the only way to avert that damage.
rqtwteye
9 months ago
What else is there? Geoengineering sounds interesting but nobody knows what the ultimate effects would be in a complex system like the Earth. And if geoengineering is done on a global level there will probably be winners and losers. How do you negotiate that?
coryrc
9 months ago
The strong do what they have to do and the weak accept what they have to accept.
resoluteteeth
9 months ago
> But changing CO2 levels is not the only way to avert that damage.
It is currently. Everything else is basically gambling on technology that doesn't yet exist.
ls612
9 months ago
We removed sulphur from ship fuels and managed to increase the temperature by 0.1C almost immediately. We may not intentionally be using non-CO2 methods to influence the climate but we are certainly capable of it by accident.
axitanull
9 months ago
So you propose we roll the dice and hope for more accidents to happen?
ls612
9 months ago
I propose we use our powers of reasoning and knowledge of chemistry as a species to try to do better than just rolling the dice and hoping for the best. Economic suicide and blind luck are not the only options. But for some economic suicide appears to be the goal.
caipre
9 months ago
What are the viable alternatives that you have in mind?
rqtwteye
9 months ago
It’s very hard to prove conclusively that any measures would actually help the situation.
AtlasBarfed
9 months ago
If anything shows the great failure of the church of economics, it's this attitude. "Everything has a monetary value".
Here's a clue to those in denial: economics can only value things in the past and the present, and only in approximation, and only in human terms of immediate utility.
Because economics CANNOT properly value virtually anything that has not yet occurred. Accounting systems may exist for it and of course they are the favorite of the cooked book. The faith that the free market is some vastly hyperintelligent entity that exceeds the power of human cognition.
Of course human perception of reality is fundamentally flawed, even for those with heavy scientific training in the compromises our senses and psychology make to perceive the world. And yet economics treats the flawed everyday idiot as some ultrapowerful computational unit of valuation of reality. Of course, that is dogma.
What is the economic value of a recently extinct species? What is the economic value of a non-acidic ocean? What is the economic value of the continued operation of oxygen-producing microorganisms in the ocean?
What is the value of the human race if it goes extinct?
The core of the problem is the function of money and monetary value: it has an essential component of whitewashing virtually all environmental impacts and damage, as well as human misery, inflicted in the generation of the "currency number". Once the "currency number" has been "earned", the sociopathy involved in the generation is blessed by the church of economics as a completely forgiven sin: because the money is the only point, a tautological pursuit.
What oil executive, car executive, politician, industrialist, coal mining executive will every face the music for their environmental sins? Because they have been immediately pardoned from the confessional booth of the limited liability corporation.
One of my prayers for cryptocurrency was a way of creating a currency that could somehow devalue these fortunes of destruction once their true macabre consequences became apparent, but it would just be another farm of energy-sucking servers, and lets face it, the damage is mostly done at this point.
So, rant aside, it doesn't FUCKING MATTER WHAT THE DOLLAR FIGURE IS IF WE GO EXTINCT. Dollars don't exist without humans, and humans don't exist without a functional biosphere. The cost is Infinite Floating Point Overflow. It is NaN.
standeven
9 months ago
Who cares about the optimal climate, we just need the rate of change to remain at a low enough level that nature (including humans) can adapt. We seem to be on the edge of that limit already.
antifa
9 months ago
Also the main detractors have a reputation for not believing things that can be proven in general.